Seacondary data from Northern Areas of Pakistan>Climate Change > Gaps in data



Introduction

Forest and Rangelands

Medicinal Plants
Wildlife
Freshwater
Climate Change
Climate of the Northern Areas
Existing research on climate change in the Northern Areas
Implications of climate change
Gaps in data
Summary and Recommendations

Gaps in Data

As the above discussion shows, some studies conducted in the Northern Areas have studied indicators of climate change such as change in temperature and precipitation, vegetation trends and glacial retreats and surges. Some of them have tried to establish links between observed variables and climate change but so far such studies are sporadic. Research on a more consistent basis and larger scale is needed because if climate change is indeed taking place then that will have repercussions on the hydrology and forests of the region which in turn will be very important in determining water management and flood risk assessment and mitigation strategies in the country.

The following gaps have been identified and it is recommended that the following research is needed:

High altitude climate
More extensive observations and recording of climate variables in the area need to be conducted. While there are many such recordings from lower elevations, many of them for a long period of time, there is a need to collect reliable climate data in the higher regions to obtain a more complete and rounded picture of what is happening to climate in the Northern Areas. The remote automated stations of WAPDA might play a useful role in this regard.

Snow and Ice data
More reliable data on ice and snow needs to be collected and analyzed. Although the Snow and Ice Hydrology Project of WAPDA has made an attempt in this direction, the data generated via this source is still not very reliable and is also rather scattered. It also needs to get data from elevations higher than 15,000 ft since this is about the limit for the present stations.

Glacier data
Glaciers should be studied in greater depth, especially whether they are retreating or advancing and establish a cause for such phenomena, climatic or otherwise. It is said that at least 10 years of data is required to determine whether glaciers are in retreat or not. In this regard some research has already been done but the picture is unclear at the moment. More primary data needs to be generated from a variety of locations in Northern Areas to get a clear, full picture.

Climate change and forests
Since forests are expected to be critically affected by climate change, there is a need to find how and to what extent forest resources in the Northern Areas are susceptible to the projected climate change. Plus the implications of climate change on agro-forestry in the region also needs to be studied. Such research does not exist so far.


Climate change and global phenomena
Detailed analysis of links between observed climatic variables and global phenomena such as El Niño, La Niña and the North Atlantic Oscillations (NAO) needs to be done. The latter is an index usually defined by the December to March average of normalized sea level pressure difference over the Azores and Iceland and is believed to have links with climate variables in this part of the world. Some researchers have tentatively explored this subject and have found evidence for temperature and precipitation differences between El Niño and non-El Niño years, but more studies need to be conducted in this regard.

 

 

 

 
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