| Gaps
in Data
As
the above discussion shows, some
studies conducted in the Northern
Areas have studied indicators of
climate change such as change in
temperature and precipitation, vegetation
trends and glacial retreats and
surges. Some of them have tried
to establish links between observed
variables and climate change but
so far such studies are sporadic.
Research on a more consistent basis
and larger scale is needed because
if climate change is indeed taking
place then that will have repercussions
on the hydrology and forests of
the region which in turn will be
very important in determining water
management and flood risk assessment
and mitigation strategies in the
country.
The following gaps have been identified
and it is recommended that the following
research is needed:
High altitude
climate
More extensive observations and
recording of climate variables in
the area need to be conducted. While
there are many such recordings from
lower elevations, many of them for
a long period of time, there is
a need to collect reliable climate
data in the higher regions to obtain
a more complete and rounded picture
of what is happening to climate
in the Northern Areas. The remote
automated stations of WAPDA might
play a useful role in this regard.
Snow and
Ice data
More reliable data on ice and snow
needs to be collected and analyzed.
Although the Snow and Ice Hydrology
Project of WAPDA has made an attempt
in this direction, the data generated
via this source is still not very
reliable and is also rather scattered.
It also needs to get data from elevations
higher than 15,000 ft since this
is about the limit for the present
stations.
Glacier data
Glaciers should be studied in greater
depth, especially whether they are
retreating or advancing and establish
a cause for such phenomena, climatic
or otherwise. It is said that at
least 10 years of data is required
to determine whether glaciers are
in retreat or not. In this regard
some research has already been done
but the picture is unclear at the
moment. More primary data needs
to be generated from a variety of
locations in Northern Areas to get
a clear, full picture.
Climate change
and forests
Since forests are expected to be
critically affected by climate change,
there is a need to find how and
to what extent forest resources
in the Northern Areas are susceptible
to the projected climate change.
Plus the implications of climate
change on agro-forestry in the region
also needs to be studied. Such research
does not exist so far.
Climate change and global
phenomena
Detailed analysis of links between
observed climatic variables and
global phenomena such as El Niño,
La Niña and the North Atlantic
Oscillations (NAO) needs to be done.
The latter is an index usually defined
by the December to March average
of normalized sea level pressure
difference over the Azores and Iceland
and is believed to have links with
climate variables in this part of
the world. Some researchers have
tentatively explored this subject
and have found evidence for temperature
and precipitation differences between
El Niño and non-El Niño
years, but more studies need to
be conducted in this regard.
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